MATHEMATICAL MODELING, PREDICTION AND PREVENTIVE MEASURES OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE IN NIGERIA AS AN EPICENTRE IN AFRICA

Abstract

This paper examines the mathematical modelling and prediction of coronavirus in Nigeria.As a result,
a lot of researchers have worked on the mechanisms for the spread, control and mitigation of
coronavirus disease in almost all the communities. We therefore, propose a mathematical model
which adopt SEIR framework to investigate the current outbreak of this pandemic in Nigeria. The
disease free equilibrium was investigated using Jacobian transformation. We conducted a detailed
analysis of this model using reported data of COVID-19 from NCDC website. We observed that
despite the increase in infectious disease among population, cases of individuals that would recover
from this infectious disease would continue to increase till the infectious disease vanish among human
population. But, it is observed that mildly infectious individuals are more than the hospitalized
individual and highly infectious are lesser than the hospitalized individuals, which could be alarming
as time goes on, because of insufficient bed space in hospitals in Nigeria. With the prediction, it is
observed that the COVID-19 curve will become flat if all the control measures are strictly adhered to.
Hence, the need to practice social distancing, use of face mask to reduce cases of individuals that are
mildly infected and highly infected. Reinforced effort from the government, decision makers and
stakeholders in ensuring compliance to all preventive measure as directed by World Health
Organization (WHO) can effectively control the spread of the virus in Nigeria.